McKae Properties Real Estate Market Commentary

More than 17% of the homes in the U.S. are selling above list price.  Would-be homeowners are furious as they lose bidding wars. Many are looking back in time and thinking "Bubble".  Of course it doesn't help for the "Media" to promote Bubbles! Prices rise and fall for all assets for a number of reasons.  So what makes something a "Bubble"?  The likely reason is so many people have put so much attention in the price of homes, and their home in particular, that it didn't take to much for prices to rise; especially, when there is a low inventory of homes for sale. A sharp rise in an asset's price is not necessarily a "Bubble".  The fear comes from the fact it is in our homes, which are usually the last thing we think of.  The last thing, at least, until the newspapers need something to publish.  Millennials represent 37% of the buyer's today.  They are the driving force of our buying marketplace.  They passed the "Baby Boom...

GENERAL COMMENTARY If there's been one consistent theme during the recovery it has been analysts, strategists, economists, and forecasters of all stripes have been incorrect  in judging the resilience of the U.S. economy. The May Luxury Real Estate Report has almost all Luxury Market in Real Estate in the U.S. in a "Seller's Market". (see link at end of report).  The days on the market are short and the buyers outnumber the sellers. There are many reasons for these circumstances of events.  The Pandemic has allowed many to work from home, thus saving time and money.   The IPO market has been HOT!   New money creates pent up demand to overflow into buyer demand.  Supply in homes for sale is limited for a number of reasons:  a.Sellers do not want to venture out for fear they and their home will become infected.  b. Higher future property taxes. c. Capital gains taxes.  d. Questions of where to move.  e. Establishing new relationships ...

 It has been a month of watching real estate prices move up in dramatic fashion and forecasters commenting on the top and or commenting it will continue to rise and go higher.  Interest rates are slowly rising and the cost of gas increasing at every fill.  My wife is constantly complaining after her Friday shopping at the cost of bread and milk.  Real Estate does not have the full attention either!  Stock keep on hitting new highs with the same diverse commentary as real estate prices.  Berkshire Hathaway common stock has hit a price that the quotation service cannot record it any longer; unless the stock is split.  Warren says "no"! The new administration's spending habit has gotten to a point that what has been spent has to be funded.  What has been heralded as  "Tax the Rich" has turned out to be a double edged sword for real estate, home owners and everyday real estate investors, called "Mom and Pop" enterprises.  The "American Famil...

 This week has started with 5 transactions falling through, 4 listings back on the market, and 11 price cuts, 73 new listings, 9 contingent and 58 pending, with 57 sold. "Going Back Home" is the swan call of the renters moving.  "Working from home and having every room rented to cover costs is not why we came to the Bay Area."   Within the next several months we will witness the results of unpaid rent and unpaid mortgages.  I do not have much faith in a solution. The subsidy programs are already finding it difficult to pay landlords.  Landlords who have been unable to finance the deficits will need to consider their losses, eat them or sell! eXp Realty is training agents for the possible oncoming foreclosure action and bank sale of REO, (real estate owned).  Becoming "certified" is a return to 2007-2011 when we had the last foreclosure boom.  Short sales and foreclosure sales were once the main source of buying properties from speculators to cost consc...

There seems to be an over abundance of real estate news from hot markets to cold markets to falling rents and pre-foreclosure risks.  Rather than using the Media reports. I have decided to go to the source.  The Multiple Listing Service has reports for every week and month going back in time.  The MLS has reports that give a view of the markets by price range and an analysis of what buyers and sellers are most interested in.  So let's go forward The "Five Counties New vs Sold" is the first stop on our travel through the real estate marketplace. From March 2020 to March 2021 there were 26,974 "new listing" and 21,891 "sales".  On average it took 22 days to sell.  The average price was $1,022,661.  The total sales for the "Five County Area" was $22,375,718,789.  That was up from $16,239,021,898. In San Mateo County the Days on the Market (DOM) for March were 18  The price to list was 107%. The average sales price for San Mateo County was $2,311...

While rents collapsed, rent went unpaid and landlords fought to keep above water an exodus evolved from the Bay Area; but within Silicon Valley, Luxury Homes escalated in numbers sold and in median prices. Quite an aberration.  In San Mateo County the number of Luxury Home Sales went from 564 in 2020 to 679.  In Santa Clara the number of Luxury Homes sold went from 1465 in 2020 to 1498 in 2021.   For 2021 Luxury Median Priced homes popped from $1.45 million to $2.90 million and Santa Clara from, $1.33 million to $2.66 million. (Thank you Louis Hansen of the Mercury News) The rush from San Francisco was  evident as Woodside, Portola Valley with their 1 acre minimum parcels provided space and safety.  *News Break states that East Palo Alto is among the Cities where home values are falling the most.  Between January 2020 to January 2021 the typical American Single Family home appreciated by 9.1%.  In East Palo Alto it declined 2.6% with a change in popula...

 Do we need a "wake up call"?  Since the beginning of the year to present, interest rates on 10-year US Government Bonds have risen 3/4%, give or take a few basis points or so (100 basis point equal 1 % point).   SO WHAT? Well the current yield of the 10-year T-bond is the rate mortgages are based upon.  Rising rates also are one of the measurements that banks and mortgage lenders use to determine their willingness to make loans either for their portfolio or to sell in the open market.  Once mortgage originators find an unwillingness to buy mortgages, interest rates must rise to make the buyers willing to take on the potential of higher rates.  The Federal Reserve has been the buyer of last resort that has kept interest rates down.  The FED has failed to stop the dramatic rise in rates. The FED has not accelerated its buying of mortgages in the after market.  Pension funds and investment companies who are the normal sources of buyers of mortg...