McKae Properties Real Estate Market Commentary

From my first class in college in investment banking that I thoroughly enjoyed, Statistic and Probability to my Wharton training in Investment Management Analysis, I have found that data shows the condition and direction of a market. We went through a shut down from March to May.  The shut down did have a negative effect on sales and house prices.  That result is difficult to use in statistical analysis because that was a controlled market place.  Once we had the release the effects on the housing market have shown the direction in the market with built up buyers coming into the market in a BIG FASHION! JUNE 2020 Atherton had a 37% decline in sales price and a 22% decline in sales volume.  Woodside had a 8% increase in sales price and a 63% decline in volume.  Portola Valley had a had A 13% INCREASE IN HOME PRICES AND A 436% INCREASE IN SALES VOLUME! Menlo Park followed with a 86% increase in sales price and a 131% increase in sales volume. Palo Alto had a 13% decline in sales p

I had a number of declines from a seniors group who I included in the Blog mailing list.  Too many came back with a "no interest, I'm going out in a box".  Yes, that is true.  Selling a home that is highly appreciated with a low property tax is quite foolish.  Even if you need the money.  A reverse mortgage will help for tight cash strapped home owners. The greatest fault I can lay on the male spouse is they leave their partner holding a bag of assets without any knowledge or training in how to proceed and know the market for their most valuable asset, their home.  The belief, "my children will take care of (her) him when I am gone",  is a false assumption. It is my hope and prayer for those who do have highly appreciated real estate they have a trust.  Then when a partner and spouse pass away, the property has a step up in basis from cost to market value.  It is essential for the surviving spouse to know the market beyond that of hear say and local papers a

What a week it is has been.  Coming up more often is the progression that Shelter @ Home will extend itself.  When a relaxation appears imminent, then more cases occur.  Go out shopping and everyone is wearing a mask and gloves.  Fill up for gas.  It is not uncommon to see the disposal of gloves after the tank is filled. Local media is on both sides of the street when it comes to whether there is a relaxation of rules or will there be a return to shelter in place. For the real estate buyer or seller one needs to get a grip on the situation and look at it realistically with a focus on their long term objectives.  Yes there will be opportunities.  Having cash in liquid form and a commitment letter from a bank is a necessity.  Having a plan is necessary Do not become too optimistic or too pessimistic that you either put yourself in a regrettable situation or missed a golden opportunity.  I think of a sermon from our local priest about a soul is given a tour of heaven.   St. Peter

After  three months of shut down, businesses closed, jobs lost and lives changed there has been a constant rhetoric of a real estate market and the economy bounding back.  Low interest rates have been a dominant source of reason to buy; along with, it will be better. Newspapers and other media have vacillated between good times ahead and danger in the wings.   Here is how the dominant Silicon Valley real estate markets have performed. In general all but two have seen sales below list.   In most instances 5-6% below list.  Homes for sale have out distanced sales.  Sales and listings have been below normal.  With the next week being a time of relaxation of rules and a return to work it will be of interest to see how home buyers and sellers will react. (CLICK THE HI LIGHTED CITIES FOR GRAPHS) In the Five County area homes for sale have risen from 11,436 in April to 16,028 in May.  Sales have declined from 9,424 in April to 8,177 in May. In Atherton  days on the marke

The S&P 5000 and the NASDAQ have all bounced back into what has been referred to as a "V" shaped recovery.  The axiom is the stock market moves in anticipation of the economy.  Coming out of Shelter in Place is so unique that it is impossible to forecast a V Shaped Recovery for Silicon Valley. We are now into our 3rd month of the Shelter in Place.  San Mateo County Board of Supervisors have extended the rental freeze on evictions and the terms to it until June 30th.  The death of an Afto-American man has created riots in various parts of America and our County.  The results have been to further toss back the retail and restaurant industry  from the virus lock down. Rents are collapsing  in Silicon Alley.  How much they will decline is a guess.  The publication linked in the previous sentence also has some 66% of those questioned willing to move from the area to lesser costly place if their jobs will allow.  Facebook has already gone that way along with Twitter, and Li

3rd Month of Shelter in Place Real Estate is an Asset Class.  As an asset class it has value from appreciation and income.  It has value as a store of value.  It has an important attribute no other asset has.  It has security in shelter. When any asset is looked at it has a value for 1. SHORT TERM, 2. INTERMEDIATE TERM, 3 LONG TERM.  The ownership of Real Estate is for investors looking for income and appreciation, investors looking for Store of Value.  The majority of real estate owners are for residential purposes.  Not rental properties but for a home to raise family enjoy grand children and spend their later years together. It is for the later I write this Blog.  It is so easy for either Buyer or Seller to be frightened by commentaries in the media.  For example Zero Hedge wrote "Somebody is Dumping Everything"  Mystery Investor Pukes $333M in Real Estate ETF in Dark Pool Trade.  Key word is INVESTOR.  Does that really mean anything for a personal home.  Does it a

I thank all of those who have complimented me and encouraged me on the posting for McKae Properties Silicon Valley Market Commentary.  It is encouraging to know that it is appreciated and encouraged. WOW, what a week!   Listings falling, prices being reduced and terms being adjusted.  All this in the face of a Shelter in Place that has been most challenging.  From Face masks to booties, to gloves and hand sanitizers just for a starter.  Then there are the new forms that the California Association of Realtors have included in the listing, visitation, marketing and sale and closing.  To add to the frustration of both sellers, buyers and agents, the new conditions eliminate brochures, open houses and brokers tours.  These are to be replaced with virtual tours to be added to the Multiple Listing Service and a requirement that final or first viewing of the property must be done with a firm desire to purchase the property listed.  In other words, no more Lookie Lews.  Visitations will requ