McKae Properties Real Estate Market Commentary

 Two places I enjoyed living in my youth was New York and San Francisco, or "The City" as it was called.   Lord Toynbee wrote the HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF.     So have no fear.  What we see happening will create opportunities   New York went Bankrupt and the US bailed them out with muni bonds referred to as Big Mac's  For Municipal Assitant Corporation.  New York cleaned up their act and it became the destination spot of the world.  Have no fear it will happen again. The same is for San Francisco.  I came there in 1983 bought a flat in Pacific Heights out of foreclosure and fixed it up and 11 months later sold it for $110,000 more and bought in Woodside at same sales price of SF but $225,000 less than list.  The place in SF is worth more now than the place in Woodside. New York is a repeat of last weeks article on SF: 56% fewer sales compare to a year ago, 30.8 months of supply and 11.3% discount from list.  West Chelsea built a high end boutique condo known as the Getty an

 Some time ago I stated that the Stock Market and the Real Estate Market are related.  They move together on a longer term basis.  Looking back at that comment had me wondering why we are seeing a strong report on housing price increases nationally and how that relates to our Silicon Valley Market. To summarise the inconsistencies I can say that we are in a perfect storm situation.  It is not a buyer's market nor a seller's market.  The perfect market where sale prices are stagnant and buyers do not fight with other buyers in over bidding the home of their choice.  Pushing prices too high puts transactions at risk as lenders and appraisers are under pressure from a risk standpoint and homes do not pass.  The seller is now faced with putting the home back on the market and having to deal with a property that must cut prices to sell. In our present situation we are in a situation where there have been a record number of price cuts on a weekly basis.  Generally speaking for the Si

The San Jose Mercury News recently wrote that the Bay Area home prices continue to rise, in the face of a pandemic. WOW!  That was hard for me to fathom.  All I experienced are price cuts and selective demand.  The Ultra Luxury Market is soft. Sales occur below list and many tie the sale to a recent cut.  This Monday there were 56 price cuts in Woodside, Atherton, Palo Alto, Redwood City, Menlo Park and Portola Valley.  Palo Alto was the greatest hit with price cuts from 7-11%.  Two cities saw price to list increases.  they were Menlo Park and Los Altos.  The other took hits. The article goes on to say that the "median" sales price for an existing home rose 3.4% from last years "median" of $925000!  WAIT A SECOND!  $925,000?  Okay, where in our Silicon Valley is there a home for sale for $925,000?  When they went into various counties the number became a bit more realistic.  San Mateo median is $1.65 million.  I live in Farm Hill Estates.  The only $1.65 million sol

This past Monday I opened the MLS website for agents and hit what I call is my "Hot List".  The "Hot List" is a summary of all the new listing, pendings, solds, price cuts or raises, withdrawn and expired properties for that day. or week.  24 price cuts for my universe of real estate.  11 price cuts in Redwood City, for an average 5.62% price cut for an average list price of $1,830,000.  A 6.78% price cut in Palo Alto in 5 listings at an average list price of  $3,756,000.  Menlo Park has 3 cuts to average 5.63% on an average list of $2,498,000.  Atherton has 3 cuts to average 7% on an average list of $7,848,000 and 2 transaction fell through. Summer clean up of inventory?  With inventories low it would seem that prices would remain stable.  Too many cuts to warrant a low inventory market.  The week has been loaded with news articles on renters, both residential and commercial.  The jury is out on this one.  Stories abound on landlords that will not relent on ren

Daniel Chinni of NBC News wrote on July 19, 2020 on the way the Pandemic has changed the way Americans live, ..."but the long-term repercussions may be in our world even after the virus eventually is controlled".  The way we shop and spend money began to change before the virus hit.  The virus only accelerated that movement.  More people found acceptance to online shopping, home delivery, working from home, with serious movements out of the congested urban environments.  In June , Visa reported American volume of spending on credit cards declined 21% from May 2020.  Debit card spending increased by 12%!  Good news, as credit card debt will decline, and spending only on money in the pocket.   Bad news for the banks. Spending habits are declining and people are more careful with their money.according to McKinsey and Company .  40% of Americans were becoming more mindful of where they spend their money.  31% were changing to less expensive products to save money. IN OTHER

From the SF Chronicle Sunday Morning Edition: "Housing Market Gets Real".  Pandemic-related restrictions on showings, the number of Bay Area homes sold fell by more than half in May.  The median price in the Bay Area fell below $1 million.  The decline is Homes sold was -51.1% and the Median Price was $965,000.  In San Mateo County the decline is homes sold was -44.5%, the median price year over year was down 6.6%.  The figures do not include condominiums and newly constructed homes, Source: California Association of Realtors.  Thank you Kathleen Pender San Francisco Chronicle columnist. From the Bay Area News, Louis Hansen, "Rents take a breather as techies go mobile".  Prices for one-bedrooms in "techie hives" near Silicon Valley plummeted from last July.  San Francisco fell 11.8%, Mountain View dropped 15.1%, Menlo Park fell 13.5%, San Jose slid 8% and Cupertino fell 15.75% according to website Zumper.  Twitter told employees they could work from home

From my first class in college in investment banking that I thoroughly enjoyed, Statistic and Probability to my Wharton training in Investment Management Analysis, I have found that data shows the condition and direction of a market. We went through a shut down from March to May.  The shut down did have a negative effect on sales and house prices.  That result is difficult to use in statistical analysis because that was a controlled market place.  Once we had the release the effects on the housing market have shown the direction in the market with built up buyers coming into the market in a BIG FASHION! JUNE 2020 Atherton had a 37% decline in sales price and a 22% decline in sales volume.  Woodside had a 8% increase in sales price and a 63% decline in volume.  Portola Valley had a had A 13% INCREASE IN HOME PRICES AND A 436% INCREASE IN SALES VOLUME! Menlo Park followed with a 86% increase in sales price and a 131% increase in sales volume. Palo Alto had a 13% decline in sales p